Long-term trends in incidence, characteristics and prognosis of screen-detected and interval cancers in women participating in the Dutch breast cancer screening programme

• Published in: British journal of cancer Vol. 130; no. 9; pp. 1561 - 1570
• Main Authors: ten Velde, Daniëlle E., Duijm, Lucien E. M., van der Sangen, Maurice J. C., Schipper, Robert-Jan, Tjan-Heijnen, Vivianne C. G., Vreuls, Willem, Strobbe, Luc J. A., Voogd, Adri C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 18.05.2024; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 631/67/2322; 692/4028/67/1347; Aged; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Biomedicine; Breast cancer; Breast Neoplasms - diagnosis; Breast Neoplasms - diagnostic imaging; Breast Neoplasms - epidemiology; Breast Neoplasms - mortality; Cancer Research; Cancer screening; Drug Resistance; Early Detection of Cancer - methods; Epidemiology; Female; Humans; Incidence; Mammography; Mass Screening - methods; Medical prognosis; Medical screening; Middle Aged; Molecular Medicine; Netherlands - epidemiology; Oncology; Prognosis; Survival; Survival Rate; Trends; Netherlands
• ISSN: 0007-0920; 1532-1827; 1532-1827
• DOI: 10.1038/s41416-024-02633-7

Background No studies are available in which changes over time in characteristics and prognosis of patients with interval breast cancers (ICs) and screen-detected breast cancers (SDCs) have been compared. The aim was to study these trends between 1995 and 2018. Methods All women with invasive SDCs ( N  = 4290) and ICs ( N  = 1352), diagnosed in a southern mammography screening region in the Netherlands, were included and followed until date of death or 31 December 2022. Results The 5-year overall survival rate of women with SDCs increased from 91.4% for those diagnosed in 1995–1999 to 95.0% for those diagnosed in 2013–2018 ( P  < 0.001), and from 74.8 to 91.6% ( P  < 0.001) in the same periods for those with ICs. A similar trend was observed for the 10-year survival rates. After adjustment for changes in tumour characteristics, the hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival was 0.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38–0.59) for women with SDCs diagnosed in the period 2013–2018, compared to the women diagnosed in the period 1995–1999. For the women with ICs this HR was 0.27 (95% CI: 0.19–0.40). Conclusion The prognosis of women with ICs has improved rapidly since 1995 and is now almost similar to that of women with SDCs.