Is Declined Cognitive Function Predictive for Fatal Accidents Involving Aging Pilots?

Background. Civil aviation comprises airlines/charters and general aviation (GA). Currently, airlines are experiencing a pilot shortage, partly reflecting scheduled retirements mandatory for airline (but not GA) pilots aged 65 years, fueling a debate as to whether the retirement age should be increa...

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Published inSafety (Basel) Vol. 10; no. 3; p. 71
Main Authors Boyd, Douglas D, Stolzer, Alan J
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.09.2024
Subjects
age
Age groups
Aged
Air pilots
Aircraft accidents
Aircraft accidents & safety
Airlines
Certification
Civil aviation
Cognition disorders
Cognitive ability
cognitive function
Decision making
Development and progression
Employment
fatal accident
Forecasts and trends
General aviation
Health aspects
pilot
Pilots
Risk exposure
Safety and security measures
Workplace accidents
United States
United States > US
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Summary:Background. Civil aviation comprises airlines/charters and general aviation (GA). Currently, airlines are experiencing a pilot shortage, partly reflecting scheduled retirements mandatory for airline (but not GA) pilots aged 65 years, fueling a debate as to whether the retirement age should be increased. Herein, using 16–40 years-of-age aviators as a reference, we determined whether GA pilots aged 60+ years (i) incurred an elevated accident rate, employing, for the first time, age-tiered flight time as a measure of risk exposure and (ii) carried an excess risk for cognitive deficiency-related fatal accidents. Methods. Airplane accidents (2002–2016) involving Class 3 medical certificated pilots were per the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) databases. Age-tiered pilot risk exposure represented a summation of flight hours per Class 3 medical applications. Cognitive decline measures were per NTSB field codes. Statistical analyses employed Chi-Square, Mann–Whitney, logistic regression, and binomial tests. Results. Using flight hours as the denominator, the fatal accident rate for older pilots (41–80 years) was unchanged compared with aviators aged 16–40 years. In the logistic regression, no cognitive deficiency measure was predictive (p = 0.11, p = 0.15) for pilots aged 61+ years who were involved in fatal accidents. Conclusion. These findings question the necessity of an automatic disqualification of air transport pilots at 65 years of age.
ISSN:2313-576X
2313-576X
DOI:10.3390/safety10030071