How big of an impact do asymptomatic people have on the dynamics of an epidemic?

• Published in: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals: X Vol. 10; p. 100093
• Main Authors: Hossain, Md Biplob, M．A．, Masud, Sikder, Arun Kumar, Islam, Md Hamidul
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2023; Elsevier
• Subjects: Asymptomatic carriers; Epidemic diseases; Isolation; Mathematical model; Optimal control; Parameter estimation; Symptomatic carriers; Parameter estimation; Asymptomatic carriers; Symptomatic carriers; Optimal control; Isolation; Mathematical model; Epidemic diseases
• ISSN: 2590-0544; 2590-0544
• DOI: 10.1016/j.csfx.2023.100093

•The impact of asymptomatic individuals on the transmission dynamics is taken into account.•Local and global stability is confirmed through rigorous mathematical analysis.•Outcome is analyzed over different regimes of important parameters.•To reduce the social and economical burden of epidemic, an optimal control model is introduced. Asymptomatic carriers serve as a potential source of transmission of epidemic diseases. Exposed people who develop symptoms only get tested and remain isolated in their homes or sometimes in hospitals when needed. In contrast, the asymptomatic individuals go untested and spread the disease silently as they roam freely throughout their entire infectious lifetime. The work intends to explore the role of asymptomatic carriers in the transmission of epidemic diseases and investigate suitable optimal control strategies. We propose a SEIAQR compartmental model subdividing the total population into six different compartments. To illustrate the model’s implication, we estimate the number of asymptomatic individuals using COVID-19 data during June 9–July 18, 2021 from Bangladesh. We then analyze the model to explore whether the epidemic subsides if the asymptomatic individuals are tested randomly and isolated. Finally, to gain a better understanding of the potential of this unidentified transmission route, we propose an optimal control model considering two different control strategies: personal protective measures and isolation of asymptomatic carriers through random testing. Our results show that simultaneous implementation of both control strategies can reduce the epidemic early. Most importantly, sustained effort in identifying and isolation of asymptotic individuals allows relaxation in personal protective measures.