Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England

Meteorological and hydrological hazards present challenges to people and ecosystems worldwide, but the limited length of observational data means that the possible extreme range is not fully understood. Here, a large ensemble of climate model data is combined with a simple grid-based hydrological mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inNatural hazards and earth system sciences Vol. 24; no. 9; pp. 2953 - 2970
Main Authors Kay, Alison L, Dunstone, Nick, Kay, Gillian, Bell, Victoria A, Hannaford, Jamie
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Katlenburg-Lindau Copernicus GmbH 04.09.2024
Copernicus Publications
Subjects
Autumn
Boxes
Case studies
Climate change
Climate models
Climatic data
Drought
Drought and floods
Environmental risk
Flood management
Flood risk
Floods
Hazard assessment
Hydrologic data
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
Precipitation
Rain
Risk management
Summer
Water conveyance
Water shortages
Water supply
Water supply systems
United Kingdom > UK
England
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Summary:Meteorological and hydrological hazards present challenges to people and ecosystems worldwide, but the limited length of observational data means that the possible extreme range is not fully understood. Here, a large ensemble of climate model data is combined with a simple grid-based hydrological model to assess unprecedented but plausible hydrological extremes in the current climate across England. Two case studies are selected – dry (summer 2022) and wet (autumn 2023) – with the hydrological model initialised from known conditions and then run forward for several months using the large climate ensemble. The modelling chain provides a large set of plausible events including extremes outside the range from use of observed data, with the lowest flows around 28 % lower on average for the summer 2022 drought study and the highest flows around 42 % higher on average for the autumn 2023 flood study. The temporal evolution and spatial dependence of extremes are investigated, including the potential timescale of the recovery of flows to normal levels and the chance of persistent extremes. Being able to plan for such events could help improve the resilience of water supply systems to drought and improve flood risk management and incident response.
ISSN:1684-9981
1561-8633
1684-9981
DOI:10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024