Election Timing, Electorate Composition, and Policy Outcomes: Evidence from School Districts

There is considerable debate about how election timing shapes who votes, election outcomes, and, ultimately, public policy. We examine these matters by combining information on more than 10,000 school tax referenda with detailed micro-targeting data on voters participating in each election. The anal...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inAmerican journal of political science Vol. 62; no. 3; pp. 637 - 651
Main Authors Kogan, Vladimir, Lavertu, Stéphane, Peskowitz, Zachary
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oxford Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01.07.2018
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Subjects
Districts
Elections
Interest groups
Older people
Partisanship
Public policy
Referendums
School districts
Taxation
Timing
Voter behavior
Voter turnout
Voters
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Summary:There is considerable debate about how election timing shapes who votes, election outcomes, and, ultimately, public policy. We examine these matters by combining information on more than 10,000 school tax referenda with detailed micro-targeting data on voters participating in each election. The analysis confirms that timing influences voter composition in terms of partisanship, ideology, and the numerical strength of powerful interest groups. But, in contrast to prominent theories of election timing, these effects are modest in terms of their likely impact on election outcomes. Instead, timing has the most significant impact on voter age, with the elderly being the most overrepresented group in low-turnout special elections. The electoral (and policy) implications of this effect vary between states, and we offer one explanation for this variation.
Bibliography:TexasISD.com
We thank the Spencer Foundation for providing generous funding that enabled us to execute this project (2015 Lyle Spencer Research Grant, “The Education Governance and Accountability Project”), as well as Marnette and Paul Perry and the Democracy Studies Program at Ohio State University for providing funding for an initial pilot that motivated this larger study. We also thank Carolyn Abott, Cory Barnes, Natalie Fritz, Ray Gans, Thomas Graham, Brennan Hall, Jared Michael, Eleni Packis, and Sarah Souders for their indispensable research assistance; Serena Henderson at the Ohio Secretary of State's Office for helping locate the archived local election results; the Ohio School Boards Association for access to their levy database; Joe Smith from
for sharing with us his data on Texas school ratification elections; Jared Knowles and the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction for providing Wisconsin referenda data; and Bob Stein for invaluable insights about the Texas property tax system. We are grateful to Carlos Lastra Anadón, Sarah Anzia, Melissa Marschall, Randall Reback, Bob Stein, Jason Windett, and seminar participants at Michigan State University, Ohio State University, and Rice University for comments on earlier drafts of this article.
ISSN:0092-5853
1540-5907
DOI:10.1111/ajps.12359