Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure

The smartphone is a must-have mobile device for the military forces to accomplish critical missions and protect critical infrastructures. This paper explores the applicability of a technology prediction methodology to manage technological obsolescence while pursuing the acquisition of advanced comme...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inApplied sciences Vol. 12; no. 6; p. 3207
Main Authors Kim, Sungil, Jung, Byungki, Han, Dongyun, Lee, Choonjoo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.03.2022
Subjects
Communication
Cooperation
Defense industry
dual-use technology
Electronics industry
Energy industry
Forecasting
Global marketing
Infrastructure
Innovations
Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI)
Military
Military communications
Military technology
National security
Obsolescence
Private sector
smartphone
Smartphones
Software
Stata
state-of-the-art technology
Technological change
Technological forecasting
Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA)
United States > US
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Summary:The smartphone is a must-have mobile device for the military forces to accomplish critical missions and protect critical infrastructures. This paper explores the applicability of a technology prediction methodology to manage technological obsolescence while pursuing the acquisition of advanced commercial technology for military use. It reviews the Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) methodology and applies an author-written Stata program for smartphone technology forecasting using TFDEA. We analyzed smartphone launch data from 2005 to 2020 to predict the adoption of smartphone technology and discuss the pace of technological change. The study identifies that the market is undergoing reorganization as new smartphone models expand the market and increase their technical performance. The average rate of technological change, the efficiency change, and the technology change were 1.079, 1.004, and 1.011 each, respectively, which means that the technology progressed over the period. When dividing before and after 2017, technological change and efficiency change generally regressed except for Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo. This means that Chinese smartphones are expanding the global market in all directions and the technology is reaching maturity and market competition is accelerating.
ISSN:2076-3417
2076-3417
DOI:10.3390/app12063207