Forecasting the development of the biped robot walking technique in Japan through S-curve model analysis

• Published in: Scientometrics Vol. 82; no. 1; pp. 21 - 36
• Main Authors: Liu, Chen-Yuan, Wang, Jhen-Cheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 2010
• Subjects: Bibliometrics; Computer Science; Information Storage and Retrieval; Library Science; Technology; S curve; Patent growth trend; The walking technique of the biped robot; Forecast
• ISSN: 0138-9130; 1588-2861
• DOI: 10.1007/s11192-009-0055-5

Patents contain much significant technical information which can serve as an indicator of technological and economical development. This study attempts to forecast the development of the biped robot walking technique in Japan by use of the patent data obtained from the Japan Patent Office. The study applies linear regression to the patent data using three S-curve models developed by Loglet Lab, Pearl, and Gompertz individually. Various parameters inherent to each model including the least sum of modulus error and the least mean of square error of the model are analyzed. The most appropriate model for measuring the inflection point, the growth and the saturation time of the technique is described. Based on the Gompertz model analysis, this study finds that the biped robot walking technique will continue to develop for several decades in Japan and the saturation period is estimated to be around the year 2079–2082. This finding can help related researchers and managers in the robot field to foresee the development trend of the biped robot walking technique in this century.