Assessment of future climate and hydrological changes in semi-arid catchment using the SWAT model and bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX ensemble: a case of the Ouergha catchment, North of Morocco

• Published in: Modeling earth systems and environment Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 349 - 369
• Main Authors: Mounir, Kaoutar, Sellami, Haykel, La Jeunesse, Isabelle, Elkhanchoufi, Abdessalam
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 01.02.2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Catchments; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Climate change; Climatic conditions; Computer Science; Drought; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth System Sciences; Ecosystems; Environment; Environmental impact; Evapotranspiration; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences; Mitigation; Moisture content; Original Article; Physics; Runoff; Soil water; Statistics for Engineering; Vulnerability; Water content; Water resources; Watersheds; Morocco; SWAT model; Climate change; Bias correction; Mediterranean region; Euro-Cordex Ensemble models
• ISSN: 2363-6203; 2363-6211
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-023-01775-6

The Ouergha catchment, located in northern Morocco, is one of the most important water resource areas for Morocco’s Sebou region, and is also a hotspot for climate change and variability, like the entire Mediterranean region. The present study aims to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in this catchment and to discuss the vulnerability of agriculture production, which has the potential to significantly impact its limited water resources and agricultural output. Specifically, the study investigates potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Ouergha catchment by quantifying changes in hydro-climatic conditions simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model, and by analyzing projections from the climate multimodel ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX for reference (1979–2005) and future (2041–2080) periods. The results predicted drier and hotter climatic conditions with projected 14%, 13% and 15% decreases in precipitation, runoff, and soil water content, respectively, in the Ouergha catchment, while evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 12%, suggesting a higher risk for drought conditions. While these projected trends were consistent with other studies that have been conducted in the Mediterranean catchments, the magnitude of hydrologic alterations indicates that the Ouergha catchment is subject to significant hydrologic alteration due to climate change and highlights the need for urgent adaptation and mitigation measures. Graphical abstract