How climate change is affecting the summer monsoon extreme rainfall pattern over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India: present and future perspectives

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 62; no. 2; pp. 1055 - 1075
• Main Authors: Pant, Manas, Bhatla, R., Ghosh, Soumik, Das, Sushant, Mall, R. K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.02.2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agriculture; Atmospheric moisture; Climate change; Climatology; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Extreme weather; Geophysics/Geodesy; Heavy rainfall; Land cover; Land use; Mean sea level; Moisture content; Monsoon rainfall; Monsoons; Oceanography; Original Article; Precipitation; Rainfall; Rainfall patterns; Sea level pressure; Specific humidity; Summer; Summer monsoon; Temperature gradients; Urbanization; Water content; Water resources; Wind; India; RCP8.5 scenario; CORDEX-CORE; REGional Climate Model v 4.7 (RegCM4.7); Monsoon extreme; Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP); Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR)
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06953-x

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), the source of grains for around 40% Indian population, is known as the breadbasket of India. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) plays a vital role in the agricultural activities in this region. The rapid urbanization, land use and land cover change have significantly impacted the region’s agriculture, water resources, and socioeconomic facets. The present study has investigated the observed and regional modeling aspects of ISMR characteristics, associated extremes over the IGP, and future perspectives under the high-emission RCP8.5-scenario. Future projections suggest a 10–20% massive decrease during pre-monsoon (March–May) and earlier ISM season months (i.e., June and July). A significant 40–70% decline in mean monsoon rainfall during the June–July months in the near future (NF; 2041–2060) has been projected compared to the historical period (1986–2005). An abrupt increase of 80–170% in mean monsoon rainfall during the post-monsoon (October–December) in the far future (FF; 2080–2099) is also projected. The distribution of projected extreme rainfall events shows a decline in moderate or rather heavy events (5 or more) in NF and FF. Further, an increase in higher rainfall category events such as very heavy (5–10) and extremely heavy rainfall (5 or more) events in NF and FF under the warmer climate is found. However, the changes are less prominent during FF compared to the NF. The mean thresholds for extremely heavy rainfall may increase by 1.9–4.9% during NF and FF. Further, the evolution patterns of various quantities, such as tropospheric temperature gradient (TG), specific humidity, and mean sea level pressure, have been analyzed to understand the physical processes associated with rainfall extremes. The strengthening in TG and enhanced atmospheric moisture content in NF and FF support the intensification in projected rainfall extremes over IGP.