Vietnam’s Population Projections and Aging Trends from 2010 to 2049

Based on Vietnam’s 2009 population census, we use a population prediction model with three schemes (high, medium, and low) to predict the population and structural changes in Vietnam from 2010 to 2049, and we analyze the trend of Vietnam’s future aging population. Our results show that (1) Vietnam’s...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of population ageing Vol. 14; no. 2; pp. 165 - 182
Main Authors Handong, Li, Hongngoc, Nguyen, Tianmin, Zhou
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.06.2021
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Aging
Censuses
Demographic change
Demography
Fertility
Geriatrics/Gerontology
Growth rate
Life expectancy
Life span
Medicine/Public Health
Population
Population decline
Population growth
Prediction models
Projections
Social Sciences
Sociology
Vietnam
Vietnam
Total fertility rate
Aging
Population projections
Demographic structure
J11
J22
J13
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Summary:Based on Vietnam’s 2009 population census, we use a population prediction model with three schemes (high, medium, and low) to predict the population and structural changes in Vietnam from 2010 to 2049, and we analyze the trend of Vietnam’s future aging population. Our results show that (1) Vietnam’s population will continue to increase in the next 40 years, but the population growth rate will continue to decline, and the population will exceed 100 million in approximately 2024; (2) Vietnam’s demographic structure will change significantly as the fertility level and life expectancy increase; and (3) Vietnam will enter an aging society starting in 2018, while the degree of aging will continue to deepen. The proportion of the population over the age of 60 in Vietnam will exceed 25% of the total population by 2049. In the next 40 years, Vietnam will face the severe challenge of an aging population.
ISSN:1874-7884
1874-7876
DOI:10.1007/s12062-019-09257-3