Impact analysis of highways in China under future extreme precipitation

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Vol. 110; no. 2; pp. 1097 - 1113
• Main Authors: Jia, Liang, Yang, Saini, Wang, Weiping, Zhang, Xinlong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.01.2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Civil Engineering; Climate change; Decision making; Disasters; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environmental Management; Extreme weather; Functional analysis; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Global climate; Highways; Hydrogeology; Impact analysis; Natural Hazards; Original Paper; Precipitation; Roads & highways; Sensitivity analysis; China; Extreme precipitation; Highways; Sensitivity analysis; Impact analysis
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04981-6

With worsening global climate change, we still do not fully understand how to cope with possible extreme precipitation events or secondary disasters on highway networks. Correctly estimating the impact on the highway network from extreme precipitation plays a vital role in decision making regarding future highway investment. This study uses datasets from 21 NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We use the percentile method to select the extreme precipitation threshold. A set of system performance measures for an impact analysis of Chinese highways under different scenarios is developed from the perspectives of physical exposure, network function and sensitivity analyses for high-impact areas in China. The results show that the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in the future. More than 10,000 km and at least 4,000 intersections will be affected by extreme precipitation in 2030 and 2050. Based on a functional analysis of the highway network in Guangdong and Guangxi, more than 80% of the mileage of highways in Guangdong and Guangxi will be exposed to extreme precipitation. The network function of Chinese highways will dramatically decrease when precipitation reaches a critical value, which will shed light on highway fortification standards and planning.