A comparative analysis of attabad landslide on january 4, 2010, using two numerical models

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Vol. 107; no. 1; pp. 519 - 538
• Main Authors: Gardezi, Hasnain, Bilal, Muhammad, Cheng, Qiangong, Xing, Aiguo, Zhuang, Yu, Masood, Tahir
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.05.2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Accuracy; Avalanches; Average velocity; Civil Engineering; Comparative analysis; Computer programs; Debris flow; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environmental Management; Failure; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hydrogeology; Landslides; Mathematical models; Natural Hazards; Numerical models; Numerical simulations; Original Paper; P-waves; Rivers; Rock masses; Rocks; Seismic data; Seismic waves; Seismological data; Simulation; Slopes; Software; Pakistan; RAMMS debris flow; Rock avalanche; Runout behavior; Dynamics of attabad landslide; DAN3D
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04593-0

This study determines the runout behavior (Attabad landslide, Hunza, Pakistan) of one of the biggest landslides in Pakistan's history, along the highest and strategically most important highway of the world. On January 4, 2010, at 08:36 local time, 45 Mm 3 of rock mass flowed down the hill slope for 1060 m and fell in Hunza River, thus blocking the river's flow and making an artificial dam. This paper examines the landslide's failure process based on seismic data obtained from a published paper. The average velocity of the slide was found to be 14.32 m/s. To better understand the landslide dynamics and failure phenomena, a numerical simulation was conducted using DAN3D to simulate displaced materials' runout behavior. Simulation results indicate that the slope's failure lasted for 70 s, which is in good agreement with seismic wave recordings of 70 s. The combined frictional–Voellmy model obtained the most accurate results for simulation. Further, to verify the results, another simulation was run using RAMMS debris flow software; it was found that the results of both the software's are in good agreement. It is expected that the selected model and its parameters will help understand similar kind of rock avalanches in the area, which will help concerned agencies improve landslide prediction along Karakoram Highway.