Multicriteria optimization for electric vehicles in an arid oil state based on a triple bottom line approach

• Published in: The international journal of life cycle assessment Vol. 27; no. 1; pp. 138 - 156
• Main Authors: Alramadhan, Dalal, Alabduljaleel, Sundus, Almulla, Dana, Aleisa, Esra
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aridity; Battery cycles; Cost control; Costs; Earth and Environmental Science; Economic models; Economics; Electric motors; Electric vehicles; Electrification; Electromobility; Emissions; Environment; Environmental aspects; Environmental Chemistry; Environmental Economics; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology; Environmental impact; Environmental performance; Family size; Fossil fuels; Gasoline; Internal combustion; Life cycle analysis; Life cycle assessment; Life cycles; Linear programming; Logistics; Mathematical models; Mixed integer; Modern Individual Mobility; Multiple criterion; Oil; Optimization; Sensitivity analysis; Social factors; Social impact; Social interactions; Subsidies; Sustainability; Sustainability reporting; Sustainable transportation; Taxation; Transportation; Triple Bottom Line; Vehicle emissions; Life cycle assessment; Economical analysis; GCC rentier states; Social analysis; Electric vehicles; Multicriteria optimization; Mathematical modeling; Kuwait
• ISSN: 0948-3349; 1614-7502
• DOI: 10.1007/s11367-021-02009-6

Purpose The electrification of transport has been generally identified as a leading trend in sustainable transportation, but the transition to electromobility has not been widely embraced in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. This study aims to identify the optimal vehicle choice for a rentier arid state in the GCC, Kuwait, while considering the environmental, economic, and social pillars of sustainability and the challenges posed in the region. Method The core of this framework is a mathematical model that integrates the three pillars of sustainability—environmental, economic, and social—with the associated practical constraints and logistics. The parameters derived from each perspective were aggregated through a weighting and normalization scheme to derive a composite sustainability index. The environmental aspect was evaluated through a life cycle assessment (LCA) of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), the financial aspect was calculated using net present value (NPV) formulas with a nominal discount rate, and the social aspect was evaluated based on a stakeholder and public perspective. An optimization model was formulated with a mixed integer program (MIP), and then, a sensitivity analysis was applied to evaluate the impact of altering key model assumptions. Results and discussion Overall, ICVs displayed worse environmental performance than BEVs across most impact categories: 74.2% of the total environmental burden of BEVs was traced back to electricity generation and 96.8% of ICV environmental impacts were attributed to the use of fossil fuels. The total annual equivalent cost was 549.55 USD higher for BEVs. High battery costs account for the high vehicle prices; however, a dramatic reduction in battery pack costs is expected in the upcoming decades. Moreover, the shift towards electric motors will lead to notable annual subsidy savings on both, the government and user, in oil-rich countries. Finally, the social impact will be favorable for ICVs in the immediate future until suitable infrastructure is implemented. Conclusions The electrification of transport has been identified as a leading trend in sustainable transportation, but the transition to electromobility has not been as widely embraced in the GCC region. Although BEVs are both environmentally and economically viable even in oil-rich countries, social barriers and policy change are the greatest challenges, including family size, lowering gasoline subsidies, imposing taxes on ICVs and vehicle emissions, and the adoption of BEVs for government and commercial fleets.