The determinants of air passenger traffic at Turkish airports

• Published in: Journal of air transport management Vol. 86; p. 101818
• Main Authors: Kağan Albayrak, Muhammed Bilge, Özcan, İsmail Çağrı, Can, Raif, Dobruszkes, Frédéric
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.07.2020
• Subjects: Air travel demand; Airport traffic; Aviation deregulation; Forecasting; Turkey; Aviation deregulation; Turkey; Forecasting; Air travel demand; Airport traffic
• ISSN: 0969-6997; 1873-2089
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101818

Investigating the determinants of air passenger traffic has become commonplace. In contrast with most previous publications, this paper investigates these determinants in an emerging country, Turkey, at the provincial level between 2004 and 2014. We find that GDP/capita, population, distance to alternative airports, tourism, leading cities, and international migrations all support more air traffic. Furthermore, market concentration is associated with less traffic, and the presence of academics with more traffic. Mapping models' residuals suggest catchment areas, surface transport options, domestic migrations and (geo)politics could also matter. Accordingly, it appears the determinants of Turkey's air passenger traffic do not differ from those of developed economies. The results also suggest new airports should be built based on the aforementioned factors. •In contrast with most publications, this paper investigates the determinants of air traffic in an emerging economy.•The determinants of air transport demand in an emerging economy are almost identical with those of the developed economies.•Spatial characteristics of the airports had a significant effect on air passenger traffic.•Higher competition in an airport is positively associated with air passenger demand.•Level of tourism activities and the number of foreign residents are significant determinants of air passenger traffic.