Research on the Disturbance Sources of Vegetable Price Fluctuation Based on Grounded Theory and LDA Topic Model

• Published in: Agriculture (Basel) Vol. 12; no. 5; p. 648
• Main Authors: Li, Youzhu, Zhang, Miao, Liu, Jinsi, Su, Bingbing, Lin, Xinzhu, Liang, Yuxuan, Bao, Yize, Yang, Shanshan, Zhang, Junjie
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.05.2022
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Clustering; complex uncertainty; Complexity; DEMATEL; Diet; Dirichlet problem; Disturbance; Economic analysis; Economic policy; Fluctuations; Grounded theory; Indicators; LDA; Mutation; Nonlinear systems; Prices; Public opinion; Rain; Stochastic models; Supply & demand; Supply chains; vegetable price fluctuation; Vegetables; China
• ISSN: 2077-0472; 2077-0472
• DOI: 10.3390/agriculture12050648

Vegetables are an important element in people’s dietary structure, and the price fluctuation of vegetables has attracted more and more attention. The disturbance sources of vegetable price fluctuations are characterized by uncertain risks, environmental complexity, nonlinearity, self-organization and mutation. Analyzing the disturbance sources that affect vegetable price fluctuation is helpful to the establishment of early warning and regulation mechanisms of vegetable price risk. To address the problem that existing studies have not comprehensively and objectively clarified the disturbance sources of vegetable price fluctuations, this paper proposes a method of combining the LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic model with grounded theory, constructs a system of vegetable price volatility disturbance source indicators and relationship matrix by improved conceptual lattice-weighted cluster method, obtains 23 disturbance sources indicators affecting vegetable price fluctuations in four aspects of supply, demand, natural environment and economic policy environment, and identifies six key factors through calculation and analysis. Through the research of this paper, a system of disturbance source indicators affecting vegetable price fluctuations is constructed, the internal connection of many disturbance sources of vegetable price fluctuations in a complex and uncertain environment is clarified, and key influencing factors are selected, thus facilitating the establishment of vegetable price risk warning models and regulation mechanisms.