Economy and Race: Interactive Determinants of Property Crime in the United States, 1958-1995: Reflections on the Supply of Property Crime

Drawing upon rational choice, routine activity, and social disorganization theories, this study investigates changes in rates of property crime known (reported) to police in the United States from 1958 to 1995. Predictor variables include changes in rates of inflation; technological, cyclical, and f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe American journal of economics and sociology Vol. 58; no. 3; pp. 405 - 434
Main Author Ralston, Roy W.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published American Journal of Economics and Sociology 01.07.1999
Subjects
Arrest rates
Arrests
Crime
Crime Rates
Criminal justice
Criminals
Frictional unemployment
Inflation
Inflation rates
Police
Property
Property crimes
Race
Racial Differences
Rational Choice
Socioeconomic Factors
Technological unemployment
Unemployment
United States of America
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Summary:Drawing upon rational choice, routine activity, and social disorganization theories, this study investigates changes in rates of property crime known (reported) to police in the United States from 1958 to 1995. Predictor variables include changes in rates of inflation; technological, cyclical, and frictional unemployment; arrest rates for property crimes disaggregated by race (ARPCDR); the interaction of ARPCDR and technological unemployment (to test effects of rising unemployment on whites versus blacks); and a measure of police provisioning. A Beach-MacKinnon Full Maximum-Likelihood FGLS AR1 Method (accompanied by residual analysis) is employed. Significant positive effects are established for (a) inflation, (b) cyclical unemployment, (c) frictional unemployment, and (d) the interaction of white arrest rates and technological unemployment. Police provisioning is not found to be significant. Policy implications are explored along with future policy considerations.
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ISSN:0002-9246
1536-7150
DOI:10.1111/j.1536-7150.1999.tb03295.x