Adaptation scenarios of agriculture in Poland to future climate changes

• Published in: Environmental monitoring and assessment Vol. 61; no. 1; pp. 133 - 144
• Main Authors: STUCZYINSKI, T, DEMIDOWICZ, G, DEPUTAT, T, GORSKI, T, KRASOWICZ, S, KUS, J
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrect Springer 01.03.2000; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adaptation; Agriculture; Climate change; Climate prediction; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Crop yield; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Environmental monitoring; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Harvesting; Meteorology; Poland; Pollution, environment geology; Water deficit; Poland; Central Europe; impact statements; carbon dioxide; models; atmospheric emission; atmospheric precipitation; Europe; greenhouse effect; adaptation; climate; economic data; spatial distribution; agriculture; climate modification; land use; global change; prediction; soils
• ISSN: 0167-6369; 1573-2959
• DOI: 10.1023/A:1006378420994

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]