Triple dip La-Nina, unorthodox circulation and unusual spin in air quality of India

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 920; p. 170963
• Main Authors: Beig, Gufran, Anand, V., Korhale, N., Sobhana, S.B., Harshitha, K.M., Kripalani, R.H.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 10.04.2024
• Subjects: Air pollution; Climatology; Meteorology; Particulate matters; Transport model; Climatology; Air pollution; Particulate matters; Transport model; Meteorology
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170963

The recent La-Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon unusually lasted for third consecutive year, has disturbed global weather and linked to Indian monsoon. However, our understanding on the linkages of such changes to regional air quality is poor. We hereby provide a mechanism that beyond just influencing the meteorology, the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere during the retreating phase of the La-Niña produced secondary results that significantly influenced the normal distribution of air quality over India through disturbed large-scale wind patterns. The winter of 2022–23 that coincided with retreating phase of the unprecedented triple dip La-Niña, was marred by a mysterious trend in air quality in different climatological regions of India, not observed in recent decades. The unusually worst air quality over South-Western India, whereas relatively cleaner air over the highly polluted North India, where levels of most toxic pollutant (PM2.5) deviating up to about ±30 % from earlier years. The dominance of higher northerly wind in the transport level forces influx and relatively slower winds near the surface, trapping pollutants in peninsular India, thereby notably increasing PM2.5 concentration. In contrast, too feeble western disturbances, and unique wind patterns with the absence of rain and clouds and faster ventilation led to a significant improvement in air quality in the North. The observed findings are validated by the chemical-transport model when forced with the climatology of the previous year. The novelty of present research is that it provides an association of air quality with climate change. We demonstrate that the modulated large-scale wind patterns linked to climatic changes may have far-reaching consequences even at a local scale leading to unusual changes in the distribution of air pollutants, suggesting ever-stringent emission control actions. [Display omitted] •Indian regions encountered a mysterious trend reversal in PM2.5 during winter of 2022–23.•The unusual large-scale wind played a pivotal role in spinning the trend patterns of PM2.5.•Longest-ever triple dip La Nina, an imprint of changing climate, responsible for disturbed winds.•Observed finding validated by chemical-transport model to strengthen interpretation