Assessing resource vulnerability quadrants under changing precipitation trends in Uttarakhand, Central Himalayan region

• Published in: Journal of mountain science Vol. 18; no. 10; pp. 2722 - 2741
• Main Authors: Vijhani, Ayushi, Sinha, Vinay Shankar Prasad, Govindan, Mini
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Science Press 01.10.2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Cartesian coordinates; Climate change; Climate effects; Climatic conditions; Confidence intervals; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Ecology; Empirical analysis; Environment; Geography; Human resources; Hydrometeorology; Methods; Mountains; Natural resources; Original Article; Precipitation; Principal components analysis; Quadrants; Regional development; River basins; Sensitivity analysis; Spatial variations; Standardization; Time series; Trends; Variability; Vulnerability; Weather stations; Resource-quadrant; Vulnerability; Climate Change; Central Himalaya; Trend analysis; Adaptation
• ISSN: 1672-6316; 1993-0321; 1008-2786
• DOI: 10.1007/s11629-021-6856-6

The Central Himalayan region is vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and characterized by regional climatic conditions. The livelihood of the mountain communities across the Himalaya is at risk owing to the consequences of variable precipitation patterns. There exists limited empirical research on precipitation variability due to inadequate hydro-meteorological stations at highaltitude regions. The study uses a novel methodology which integrates precipitation variability with resource sensitivity over the three verticals of Central Himalaya: Himadri, Himachal and Shivaliks and across four major river basins: Yamuna, Upper Ganga, Ghaghar and Ramganga. The magnitude of the significant precipitation trends was estimated through time series analysis at a 95% confidence interval. To assess the sensitivity of natural resources (forest, water and land) and human resources, fourteen mountain-specific indicators were identified which captured resource index using data standardization and principal component analysis. Sen’s slope and Resource index were plotted in a 2D Cartesian coordinate to draw precipitation-resource quadrants with their effective coverage area: High Precipitation and Scarce Resources (35.92%); Low Precipitation and Abundant Resources (30.10%); Low Precipitation and Scarce Resources (22.33%) and High Precipitation and Abundant Resources (11.65%). This helped in developing quadrant-specific adaptation strategies under regional variability of precipitation. The methodology and the research findings will certainly assist water experts, resource managers and policy makers to strengthen adaptive capacity and improve the resilience of vulnerable communities across Himalaya.