Climate change impact on precipitation and cardinal temperatures in different climatic zones in Iran: analyzing the probable effects on cereal water-use efficiency

• Published in: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Vol. 31; no. 8; pp. 2121 - 2146
• Main Authors: Karandish, Fatemeh, Mousavi, Seyed Saeed, Tabari, Hossein
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.10.2017; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Air temperature; Annual precipitation; Aquatic Pollution; Arid zones; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Climate change; Climate effects; Climatic zones; Computational Intelligence; Computer Science; Computer simulation; Crop yield; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environment; General circulation models; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Humid areas; Humid climates; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Original Paper; Physics; Precipitation; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Rainfall; Reduction; Seasons; Semi arid areas; Statistics for Engineering; Sustainable agriculture; Uncertainty analysis; Waste Water Technology; Water circulation; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Water use; Water use efficiency; Iran; Climatic zones; Future climate conditions; GCMs; LARS-WG; Uncertainty analysis; AquaCrop model; SRES scenarios
• ISSN: 1436-3240; 1436-3259
• DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1355-y

Global greenhouse gases increase could be a threat to sustainable agriculture since it might affect both green water and air temperature. Using the outputs of 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, the projected annual and seasonal precipitation (P) and cardinal temperatures (T) were analyzed for five climatic zones in Iran. In addition, the probable effects of climate change on cereal production were studied using AquaCrop model. Data obtained from the GCMs were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. An uncertainty analysis was done for the projected P and T associated to GCMs and SRES scenarios. Based on station observations, LARS-WG was capable enough for simulating both P and T for all the climatic zones. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project positive P and T changes. In all the climatic zones, wet seasons have a higher P increase than dry seasons, with the highest increase (27.9–83.3%) corresponding to hyper-arid and arid regions. A few GCMs project a P reduction mainly in Mediterranean and hyper-humid climatic regions. The highest increase (11.2–44.5%) in minimum T occurred in Mediterranean climatic regions followed by semi-arid regions in which a concurrent increase in maximum T (2.9–14.6%) occurred. The largest uncertainty in P and cardinal T projection occurred in rainy seasons as well as in hyper-humid regions. The AquaCrop simulation results revealed that the increased cardinal T under global warming will cause 0–28.5% increase in cereal water requirement as well as 0–15% reduction in crop yield leading to 0–30% reduction in water use efficiency in 95% of the country.