Violent Physical Bullying Victimization at School: Has There Been a Recent Increase in Exposure or Intensity? An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis in the United States, 1991 to 2012

• Published in: Child indicators research Vol. 9; no. 2; pp. 485 - 513
• Main Authors: Fu, Qiang, Land, Kenneth C., Lamb, Vicki L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.06.2016; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Algorithms; Bullying; Child and School Psychology; Childbirth & labor; Cohort Analysis; Early Childhood Education; Exceptions; Injuries; Probability; Quality of Life Research; Schools; Social Sciences; Social Work; Teenagers; Victimization; Violence; Weapons; United States > US; Victimization; Age-period-cohort analysis; Violent bullying at school; Zero-inflated Poisson models
• ISSN: 1874-897X; 1874-8988
• DOI: 10.1007/s12187-015-9317-3

Using data from an annual nationally representative survey of U.S. 8th, 10th, and 12th graders from 1991 to 2012, this paper applies a new two-step method to study trends in self-reports of victimization during the last year from four forms of violent bullying at school (threatened without injury, threatened with a weapon, injury without a weapon, injury with a weapon). First, we develop a statistical algorithm for estimating, for each school year, the exposure probability (likelihood or risk of being victimized) and intensity rate (rate of victimization among those exposed to the risk of being victimized) parameters of zero-inflated Poisson models of truncated and combined self-reported victimization frequency data for the four forms of violent bullying. Estimates of both the exposure to, and intensity of, the self-reported frequencies for each the four forms for each of the grades show increases into the middle part of the 2000–2010 decade with slight declines in the years 2008–2012. Exceptions are found for intensity rates of threats without injury and threats with a weapon among 12th graders. Second, age-period-cohort analysis was applied to the estimated exposure and intensity parameters of violent bullying victimization. This analysis reveals: (1) that both the exposure probabilities and intensity rates decrease from the 8th (typically 13–14 year olds) to the 10th (typically 15–16 year olds) to the 12grades (typically 17–18 years old); (2) that the school years 2006 to 2012 were associated with decreases in time period exposure probabilities and increases in intensity rates - fewer students victimized per school year but those who are victimized are victimized more frequently; and (3) that birth cohorts born since the late-1980s had decreases in intensity rates, but their exposure probabilities increased until the most recent (1995–1996) cohorts for which the exposure probabilities have stabilized or declined.