Assessing the Adaptability of Water Resources System in Shandong Province, China, Using a Novel Comprehensive Co-evolution Model

• Published in: Water resources management Vol. 33; no. 2; pp. 657 - 675
• Main Authors: Yao, Jiping, Wang, Guoqiang, Xue, Weina, Yao, Zhipeng, Xue, Baolin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 2019; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adaptability; Adaptation; Atmospheric Sciences; Civil Engineering; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Ecology; Economics; Environment; Environmental changes; Evolution; Fitness; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hydrogeology; Hydrology/Water Resources; Reproductive fitness; Survival; Sustainability; Sustainable development; Water resources; China; Comprehensive co-evolution model; Water resources systems; Coordination degree; Adaptability; Survival fitness
• ISSN: 0920-4741; 1573-1650
• DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2129-8

Studying the complex adaptability of regional water resources systems (WRS) plays an important role in promoting the sustainable utilization of water resources and improving the adaptation of WRS to environmental change. This study proposed a comprehensive co-evolution model, based on the conditions of the elements and on the mechanism of their interaction, to study the adaptive development of WRS. Using the model, the survival fitness of each subsystem, the coordination degree between each subsystem, and the survival fitness of the WRS were obtained, and the main factors that affect the adaptation of the WRS were analyzed. Shandong Province in China was used as an example. The results showed that during 2006–2015, the average annual survival fitness of the resource, social, economic, and ecological subsystems was 0.257, 0.282, 0.257, and 0.251, respectively, which indicated a low adaptability for each subsystem. The coordination degree between each subsystem (resource–society, resource–economy, resource–ecology, social–economic, social–ecological, and economic–ecological) was 0.319, 0.355, 0.334, 0.364, 0.333, and 0.351, respectively, which indicated minimal coordination between each subsystem. The average annual survival fitness of the WRS was 0.551, and the adaptability of the WRS was classified as basic. Further analysis revealed that the coordination problem caused by the interaction of the elements in each subsystem was responsible for the low adaptability. The coordination problem, therefore, places severe constraints on the adaptive development of WRS. Therefore, solving the problem of coordination between elements is fundamental to improving the adaptability of WRS and promoting its sustainable development.