Assessing Amur Water Regime Variations in the XXI Century with Two Methods Used to Specify Climate Projections in River Runoff Formation Model

• Published in: Water resources Vol. 45; no. 3; pp. 307 - 317
• Main Authors: Gelfan, A. N., Kalugin, A. S., Motovilov, Yu. G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Moscow Pleiades Publishing 01.05.2018; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Air temperature; Annual; Annual precipitation; Annual runoff; Anomalies; Aquatic Pollution; Boundary conditions; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climatological normals; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Genetic transformation; Global climate; Global climate models; Hydrogeology; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Hydrology/Water Resources; Linear transformations; Long-term changes; Mathematical models; Meteorological observations; Methods; Numerical experiments; Precipitation; River discharge; River flow; River runoff; Rivers; Runoff; Sensitivity analysis; Simulation; Temperature (air-sea); Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Water Resources and the Regime of Water Bodies; Water temperature; linear transformation of observed meteorological series; river runoff variations; global climate models; Amur
• ISSN: 0097-8078; 1608-344X
• DOI: 10.1134/S0097807818030065

A regional numerical physico-mathematical model of river runoff formation is used to study the possibility to assess long-term variations of water regime characteristics in the Amur R. in the XXI century. Two methods were used to specify climate projections as boundary conditions in the hydrological model: (1) based on the results of calculations with an ensemble of global climate models of CMI5 project, (2) based on data obtained by linear transformation of series of actual meteorological observations with the use of normal annual climate parameters calculated by climate models. The results of numerical experiments were used to analyze the sensitivity of the anomaly of Amur normal annual runoff to changes in the climate normals of air temperature and precipitation. The anomalies of normal annual runoff were shown to respond similarly (within the accuracy of sensitivity coefficient estimates) to changes in the appropriate climate normals, whatever the way of specifying climate projections.