CO2 emission projection for Arctic shipping: A system dynamics approach

• Published in: Ocean & coastal management Vol. 205; p. 105531
• Main Authors: Jing, Danyue, Dai, Lei, Hu, Hao, Ding, Wenyi, Wang, Yubing, Zhou, Xiaoxuan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.05.2021
• Subjects: Arctic shipping; CO2 emission; Emission projection; Policy implication; System dynamics; Arctic shipping; System dynamics; Emission projection; CO2 emission; Policy implication
• ISSN: 0964-5691; 1873-524X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105531

As the Arctic route has shown its potential for Europe-North Asia trade, the number of ships across Arctic route is surging. However, CO2 emissions generated by ships would harm the regional environment. Thus, how to quantify the CO2 emissions brought by ships for the present stage and future is critical for Arctic environment governance. As shipping emissions are determined by economic, political, environmental and operational factors, little research has been done to estimate CO2 emission from a systematical way. This paper proposed a System Dynamics (SD) model that incorporates those comprehensive factors simultaneously for Arctic shipping CO2 emission projection. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the ships sail across NSR are selected for estimation. 12 scenarios with different fuel usage conditions and ship speeds have been set to investigate the trend of CO2 emissions. Results show that when under the BAU scenario, the overall shipping CO2 emission on the NSR by 2050 will be 5506149 tons, which is 1.76 times of the emission level in 2020. Switching to cleaner fuels (such as LNG) and slow steaming are effective ways of emission reduction based on the simulation results. The conclusions can facilitate policy makers in making emission reduction decision. [Display omitted] •A System Dynamics framework for estimating shipping related CO2 emissions on Arctic shipping route is proposed.•All potential ship types and 3 sailing types (intra-navigation, destination and transit) along NSR are considered in the estimation.•12 scenarios based on different fuel usage structure and ships’ sailing speed are set.•Results indicate that under the BAU scenario, the overall shipping CO2 emission on NSR by 2050 will be 5506149 tons, which is 1.76 times of the emission level in 2020.