Risk analysis for a cascade reservoir system using the brittle risk entropy method

• Published in: Science China. Technological sciences Vol. 59; no. 6; pp. 882 - 887
• Main Authors: Yang, Yin, Ren, QingWen, Tian, Ying, Xiong, Yao
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Beijing Science China Press 01.06.2016
• Subjects: Engineering; 安全分析; 安全风险分析; 梯级开发; 水库系统; 水电建设项目; 熵方法; 系统工程理论; 脆性; safety analysis; brittle risk entropy; risk assessment; complex system; cascading failure model
• ISSN: 1674-7321; 1869-1900
• DOI: 10.1007/s11431-016-6013-6

The principal means of conserving water and utilizing hydropower in China is to exploit the use of a series of reservoirs in a cascade. This method and its inherent engineering safety problems are receiving increasing attention nowadays. In the field of engineering safety analysis, much work has focused on single reservoir projects in the past few years, but there is little research available on the safety risk analysis of cascade reservoirs, either within China or internationally. Therefore, a framework for risk analysis on the cascade reservoir system based on the theory of system engineering is constructed in this article. A cascading failure model is established and the connection degree factor discussed. In addition, the importance degree of the sub- system, which can be calculated by combining the analytical hierarchy process and the entropy weight method, is explained. According to brittleness theory of a complex system, brittle risk entropy is proposed as a performance index for measuring the collapse uncertainty of the cascade reservoir system. In addition, the brittle risk of the cascade reservoir system is predicted, which provides a reference for safety analysis in water conservation and hydropower construction projects in China.