France’s militarized interstate disputes: diversion from domestic problems?

• Published in: French politics Vol. 22; no. 4; pp. 321 - 348
• Main Author: Bussmann, Margit
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Palgrave Macmillan UK 01.12.2024; Palgrave Macmillan
• Subjects: Armed forces; Comparative Politics; Decision making; Democracy; Disputes; European Politics; Exceptions; Foreign policy; Military intervention; Original Article; Patriotism; Political leadership; Political Science; Political Science and International Relations; Political Science and International Studies; Popularity; Presidential approval; Presidents; Public opinion; Ratings & rankings; Research methodology; Sociology; France; Rally effect; Military disputes; France; Presidential popularity; Diversionary theory; Foreign policy
• ISSN: 1476-3419; 1476-3427
• DOI: 10.1057/s41253-024-00249-0

A large body of research investigates whether democracies’ decisions to intervene militarily are guided by external threats and strategic considerations or whether domestic factors play the predominant role. Foreign military intervention can create a “rally-round-the-flag” effect and might be used to divert attention away from domestic problems. A reassessment of diversionary theory for France, as one of the most militarily active European powers, which has hardly been subject to rigorous empirical research so far, is not supportive of the theory’s theses. There is only weak support that France is more likely to intervene in months with low presidential popularity and no evidence of a systematic rally effect after France gets involved in military disputes. With few exceptions, presidential approval ratings do not improve.