Time-variant reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes based on Support Vector Machine method

• Published in: Journal of Central South University of Technology. Science & technology of mining and metallurgy Vol. 18; no. 6; pp. 2108 - 2114
• Main Authors: Chen, Chang-fu, Xiao, Zhi-yu, Zhang, Gen-bao
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Central South University 01.12.2011
• Subjects: Engineering; Metallic Materials; Morgenstern-Price method; Support Vector Machine; slope engineering; three dimension; time-variant reliability
• ISSN: 1005-9784; 1993-0666
• DOI: 10.1007/s11771-011-0950-9

In the reliability analysis of slope, the performance functions derived from the most available stability analysis procedures of slopes are usually implicit and cannot be solved by first-order second-moment approach. A new reliability analysis approach was presented based on three-dimensional Morgenstern-Price method to investigate three-dimensional effect of landslide in stability analyses. To obtain the reliability index, Support Vector Machine (SVM) was applied to approximate the performance function. The time-consuming of this approach is only 0.028% of that using Monte-Carlo method at the same computation accuracy. Also, the influence of time effect of shearing strength parameters of slope soils on the long-term reliability of three-dimensional slopes was investigated by this new approach. It is found that the reliability index of the slope would decrease by 52.54% and the failure probability would increase from 0.000 705% to 1.966%. In the end, the impact of variation coefficients of c and f on reliability index of slopes was taken into discussion and the changing trend was observed.