Assessing the economic viability of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2021 to 2065

• Published in: International journal of digital earth Vol. 17; no. 1
• Main Authors: Wu, Adan, Che, Tao, Xu, Qingchao, Wang, Jiping, Chen, Jinlei, Zhu, Xiaowen
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Taylor & Francis Group 31.12.2024
• Subjects: Arctic shipping; CMIP6; economic assessment; Northeast Passage; reinforcement learning
• ISSN: 1753-8947; 1753-8955
• DOI: 10.1080/17538947.2024.2323182

ABSTRACTThe Northeast Passage (NEP) holds immense potential as a link for maritime transport activities between Europe and Asia, primarily due to the extended sailing season resulting from global warming. However, the economic viability of the Arctic shipping route remains disputed. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the feasibility of container transportation along the NEP compared to that along the Suez Canal Route (SCR) by using current (2021–2023) and future (2025–2065) scenarios. The results reveal that larger vessels have lower CO2 emissions and costs than small vessels in the NEP, but the costs for larger vessels in the NEP are still higher than those in the SCR throughout both summer and winter seasons under the current scenario. The outcomes also show that a progressive carbon tax scheme will increase the unit shipping costs for all routes in the future scenario, with the NEP being most economically viable during summer. Furthermore, the extended navigable period (NP) bolsters the NEP’s economic cost advantage during a seasonal period. Nevertheless, from a year-round operations standpoint, the NEP remains less competitive than the SCR before 2065. The conclusions drawn from this research serve as a significant resource for decision-makers when formulating operational plans.