Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: A Simple Method to Estimate R0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data

The basic reproduction number, R0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction numbe...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of environmental research and public health Vol. 7; no. 1; pp. 291 - 302
Main Author Nishiura, Hiroshi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 21.01.2010
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Summary:The basic reproduction number, R0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R0 using a spreadsheet.
ISSN:1660-4601
1661-7827
1660-4601
DOI:10.3390/ijerph7010291