Limits to graphite supply in a transition to a post-fossil society

• Published in: Resources, conservation and recycling Vol. 208; p. 107709
• Main Authors: Barre, Francis Isidore, Billy, Romain Guillaume, Lopez, Fernando Aguilar, Müller, Daniel Beat
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.09.2024
• Subjects: Electric mobility; Graphite; Lithium-ion batteries (LIB); Material flow analysis (MFA); Needle coke; Resource use; Lithium-ion batteries (LIB); Material flow analysis (MFA); Electric mobility; Needle coke; Graphite; Resource use
• ISSN: 0921-3449; 1879-0658
• DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107709

•Graphite supply is largely dependent on fossil fuel extraction while being key to the electrification of transportation.•Scenarios with net zero emissions in 2050 show large discrepancies between modeled anticipated graphite demand and supply.•Graphite supply constraints could delay the entire electrification of transportation.•The transition to fossil-free transportation requires rapid advances in graphite recycling combined with reduced vehicle ownership and size.•Graphite alternatives and graphite recycling technologies are immature to lower the risk of supply disruptions. Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) powered by lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) aims at reducing emissions in the transportation sector, thereby decreasing fuel oil use and crude oil extraction. Yet, synthetic graphite, a crucial anode material for LIBs, is produced from needle coke, a byproduct of oil refining. This dependency could lead to bottlenecks in battery anode production. We found no obvious supply constraints for synthetic graphite in slow electrification scenarios based on different International Energy Agency scenarios. In contrast, net zero scenarios reveal drastic limitations in synthetic graphite supply, due to fast electrification and declining needle coke production. Natural graphite can mitigate supply limitations but faces environmental concerns, long development time and geopolitical concerns. Securing graphite supply while reaching the net zero goals requires comprehensive strategies combining (1) systematic graphite recycling, (2) overcoming current technical challenges, and (3) behavioral shifts towards reduced vehicle ownership and smaller vehicles. [Display omitted]