Using grey Gompertz model to explore the carbon emission and its peak in 16 provinces of China

• Published in: Energy and buildings Vol. 277; p. 112545
• Main Authors: Cai, Kai, Wu, Lifeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 15.12.2022
• Subjects: Carbon emission; Carbon peak; China’s provinces; Gompertz's law; Grey prediction model; Carbon emission; Carbon peak; Grey prediction model; China’s provinces; Gompertz's law
• ISSN: 0378-7788
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112545

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China's carbon emissions and the time of carbon peak have always been a hot topic at home and abroad. However, in previous studies, the predicted period of carbon emissions is relatively short. In order to obtain the predicted data of China’s carbon emission and the specific time of carbon peak, the carbon emissions in 30 provinces of China are predicted and analyzed. For 16 provinces with increasing carbon emissions, a novel grey model is proposed to predict the limit of growth data. This model improves the structure of the traditional grey prediction model based on the Gompertz's law and the differential information principle. Its predicted period is longer than that of the traditional grey model. The predicted trend is more in line with the law of natural development. Moreover, this model can predict the limits of a variety of growth data, such as the emissions of various air pollutants. After the prediction, the carbon emissions in these 16 provinces from 2020 to 2032 are obtained. According to the forecast results, eight of the 16 provinces will reach the carbon peak by 2030, namely Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shanxi, Liaoning, Hubei, Guizhou, Guangxi and Jiangxi. The five provinces namely Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Shaanxi and Fujian will reach the carbon peak in 2031 or 2032. The three provinces namely Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Ningxia will not reach their carbon peak by 2032. Based on the above forecasts and analysis, it can be inferred that China will reach the carbon peak in 2032, with emissions of 11.8 billion tons. Scientific predicted data will play a guiding role in carbon emission control. At the end of the paper, the current situations of carbon emissions in 30 provinces are analyzed and suggestions on carbon emission control are put forward.