Examining the outstanding Euro-Mediterranean drought of 2021–2022 and its historical context

• Published in: Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 630; p. 130653
• Main Authors: Garrido-Perez, Jose M., Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Barriopedro, David, García-Herrera, Ricardo, Trigo, Ricardo, Beguería, Santiago
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.02.2024
• Subjects: Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric evaporative demand; Climate change; Climate extreme; Global warming; SPEI; Atmospheric evaporative demand; Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Global warming; Climate extreme; SPEI
• ISSN: 0022-1694; 1879-2707
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130653

•Most of the Euro-Mediterranean region affected by drought conditions during 2021/22.•Recursive high-pressure systems & a poleward jet shift explain rainfall deficits.•Most severe drought since at least 1891 when considering evaporative demand (AED)•Enhanced AED caused unprecedented low soil moisture & runoff since at least 1965.•Potential worst-case droughts if historic rainfall deficits occur with current AED. The Euro-Mediterranean region experienced a remarkable drought during the hydrological year 2021/22. Substantial and widespread impacts on water supply systems, agricultural crops, and the production of hydroelectric power were observed. This assessment characterises the drought from a long-term perspective using a multi-index approach and analyses the associated atmospheric circulation at the annual and monthly time scales. The main dynamical forcing of the drought was the unusual recurrence of high-pressure systems over western Europe, at least partly due to an anomalous southward shift in blocking activity and a remarkable occurrence of low-latitude blocks. This led to record-breaking positive geopotential height anomalies over western Europe and a poleward displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. Although most of the region was affected by mild drought conditions, the 2021/22 event was not unprecedented in terms of precipitation deficits since other periods of the 20th century (e.g., in the 1920s, 1940s and 1970s) displayed moderate and severe drought conditions over larger areas. However, the 2021/22 drought has been the most intense since at least 1891 because of high atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) values associated with extreme temperatures, especially during the summer of 2022. This enhanced AED also contributed to depleting soil moisture and reducing runoff generation, leading to unprecedented deficits since at least 1965. Finally, we find important differences in the 2021/22 event as compared to other major historical droughts over the Euro-Mediterranean region. In particular, the contrasting effect of AED evidences its increasing role over the last decades and warns about the current risk of experiencing unprecedented droughts.