Overview and comparison of long-term forecasting techniques for a fast developing utility: part I

• Published in: Electric power systems research Vol. 58; no. 1; pp. 11 - 17
• Main Authors: Kandil, M.S, El-Debeiky, S.M, Hasanien, N.E
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 21.05.2001
• Subjects: Forcasting methods; Long-term load forecast; Forcasting methods; Long-term load forecast
• ISSN: 0378-7796; 1873-2046
• DOI: 10.1016/S0378-7796(01)00097-9

The intrinsic uncertainties associated with demand forecasting become more acute when it is required to provide an invaluable dimension to the decision-making process in a period characterized by fast and dynamic changes. In this paper, estimates of the peak demand, pertaining to a typical fast growing system with inherit dynamic load characteristics, and also a normal developing system, is derived from the classical long-term forecasting methods. These demand estimates are compared with corresponding actual values. Then, a proposed model based on demand characteristics of fast developing utility is obtained to yield best fit. Afterwards, improved modeling of the system load characteristics using a knowledge-based expert system, described in a companion paper (Part II), will demonstrate better forecasts compared with forecasts obtained by direct applications of classical techniques.