Broadcasting Out-Group Repression to the In-Group: Evidence From China

Many autocrats govern with an in-group, whose support must be secured, and an out-group, which is subject to repression. How do autocrats exploit in-group/out-group dynamics to secure their survival? One strategy, we argue, is to broadcast out-group repression to the in-group as a signal of the regi...

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Published inThe Journal of conflict resolution Vol. 68; no. 6; pp. 1080 - 1108
Main Authors Baggott Carter, Erin, Carter, Brett L.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01.07.2024
SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
Subjects
Anniversaries
Asian cultural groups
Autocracy
Broadcasting
Censuses
Conflict resolution
Demonstrations & protests
Elites
Falsification
Group dynamics
Group identity
Massacre
Massacres
Oppression
Propaganda
Tiananmen Square Incident
Urban areas
Uyghur people
ethnic politics
rebellion
repression
propaganda
political survival
human rights
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Summary:Many autocrats govern with an in-group, whose support must be secured, and an out-group, which is subject to repression. How do autocrats exploit in-group/out-group dynamics to secure their survival? One strategy, we argue, is to broadcast out-group repression to the in-group as a signal of the regime’s capacity for violence. Empirically, we focus on China, where the government represses ethnic Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Drawing on 1 million articles from six propaganda newspapers, we show that the regime broadcasts out-group repression to urban elites on each anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when 10% of Beijing residents joined anti-regime protests. To understand its effects, we conducted a survey experiment balanced on the national census during the June 2020 Tiananmen anniversary. Using a list experiment to mitigate preference falsification, we show that CCP propaganda about Uyghurs during the Tiananmen anniversary discourages protests among politically engaged urban elites because they fear repression.
ISSN:0022-0027
1552-8766
DOI:10.1177/00220027231185148