Cloud-dependent piecewise assimilation based on a hydrometeor-included background error covariance and its impact on regional Numerical Weather Prediction

• Published in: Monthly weather review Vol. 149; no. 9; p. 3155
• Main Authors: Meng, Deming, Chen, Yaodeng, Li, Jun, Wang, Hongli, Wang, Yuanbing, Sun, Tao
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington American Meteorological Society 01.09.2021
• Subjects: Assimilation; Atmospheric precipitations; Clouds; Covariance; Errors; Forecast errors; Heavy rainfall; Hydrometeors; Moisture effects; Multivariate analysis; Numerical prediction; Numerical weather forecasting; Precipitation; Precipitation forecasting; Rain; Rainfall; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 0027-0644; 1520-0493
• DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0419.1

Abstract The background error covariance ( B ) behaves differently and needs to be carefully defined in cloudy areas due to larger uncertainties caused by models’ inability to correctly represent complex physical processes. This study proposes a new cloud-dependent B strategy by adaptively adjusting the hydrometeor-included B in the cloudy areas according to the cloud index (CI) derived from the satellite-based cloud products. The adjustment coefficient is determined by comparing the error statistics of B for the clear and cloudy areas based on the two-dimensional geographical masks. The comparison highlights the larger forecast errors and manifests the necessity of using appropriate B in cloudy areas. The cloud-dependent B is then evaluated by a series of single observation tests and three-week cycling assimilation and forecasting experiments. The single observation experiments confirm that the cloud-dependent B allows cloud dependency for the multivariate analysis increments and alleviates the discontinuities at the cloud mask borders by treating the CI as an exponent. The impact study on regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) demonstrates that the application of the cloud-dependent B reduces analyses and forecasts bias and increases precipitation forecast skills. Diagnostics of a heavy rainfall case indicate that the application of the cloud-dependent B enhances the moisture, wind, and hydrometeors analyses and forecasts, resulting in more accurate forecasts of accumulated precipitation. The cloud-dependent piecewise analysis scheme proposed herein is extensible, and a more precise definition of CI can improve the analysis, which deserves future investigation.