The impact of climate change on the future geographical distribution range of the endemic relict tree Gleditsia caspica (Fabaceae) in Hyrcanian forests

• Published in: Ecological informatics Vol. 71; p. 101773
• Main Authors: Yousefzadeh, Hamed, Amirchakhmaghi, Narjes, Naseri, Bahram, Shafizadeh, Farzad, Kozlowski, Gregor, Walas, Łukasz
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.11.2022
• Subjects: Conservation; Hyrcanian forest; Relict trees; Species distribution models; Species vulnerability; Species distribution models; Species vulnerability; Hyrcanian forest; Conservation; Relict trees
• ISSN: 1574-9541
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101773

The Caspian locust (Gleditsia caspica) is an endemic relict tree that occurs in Hyrcanian forests. Many of its habitats have been destroyed in the last half-century. This study was performed to map past geographic distributions and estimate the suitable areas and potential risks of remaining populations under future climate change. Eight bioclimatic scenarios (one with current conditions, three with future climates, and four with past conditions) were tested using the maximum entropy algorithm. The most significant factors influencing the distributions of G. caspica were precipitation in the driest month and temperature seasonality. Even under the most optimistic model (RCP2.6), many stands of G. caspica may become endangered in the eastern and central parts of the range, and the distribution of this species will probably shift to the west of the Hyrcanian forest area. Considering the increasing destruction of habitats of this species due to human activities and the expected negative effects of climate change in the future, it is recommended that nature reserves be established to protect the habitat of G. caspica. Additionally, ex situ conservation strategies, such as storing seeds using cryopreservation techniques, can ensure the long-term survival of this species in the future. •Gleditsia caspica is a relict and endemic tree from Hyrcanian forests, one of the WWF's global ecoregions.•Range expansion of G. caspica started after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).•Two refugia of G. caspica exist in Hyrcanian forests: in Gilan (the largest) and eastern Mazandaran provinces.•In the future, the potential range of G. caspica will significantly shrink, and eastern populations may go extinct.