Is China ready for a hydrogen economy? Feasibility analysis of hydrogen energy in the Chinese transportation sector

• Published in: Renewable energy Vol. 223; p. 119964
• Main Authors: Huang, Jingzhi, Lu, Danni, Huang, Xianan, Hu, Zhenda, Liu, Lin, Lin, Changzhui, Jing, Rui, Xie, Chunping, Brandon, Nigel, Zheng, Xuyue, Zhao, Yingru
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.03.2024
• Subjects: Consumer preference rate; Hydrogen energy; Industrial chain; Life cycle assessment; Marketing strategies; Optimization model; Scale economy benefits model; Transportation sector decarbonization; Life cycle assessment; Industrial chain; Hydrogen energy; Transportation sector decarbonization; Scale economy benefits model; Consumer preference rate; Optimization model; Marketing strategies
• ISSN: 0960-1481; 1879-0682
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.119964

Hydrogen plays a crucial role in achieving deep decarbonization in the global transportation sector. This study aims to identify an efficient development strategy for hydrogen energy in China's transportation sector. We propose a market acceptance model integrated with life cycle assessment to analyze the feasibility of adopting hydrogen energy in this sector. We develop a profit-fairness optimization model to maximize the profits of the entire industrial chain, ensuring a fair distribution across upstream, midstream, and downstream components. The study finds that hydrogen energy is currently not feasible in China's transportation sector, with consumer preference close to zero. With the anticipated decrease in the cost of future hydrogen applications, achieving suitable development of the industrial chain requires optimal profitability: 39.44 % in production, storage, and delivery industries, and 11.14 % in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturing industry in our case. Recommended future marketing strategies include increasing the profitability of production, storage, and delivery industries through guaranteed market-acceptable prices. Additionally, adopting a thin margin strategy for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturing industries and prioritizing subsidies.