Primer on medical decision analysis: Part 3--Estimating probabilities and utilities

• Published in: Medical decision making Vol. 17; no. 2; p. 136
• Main Authors: Naglie, G, Krahn, M D, Naimark, D, Redelmeier, D A, Detsky, A S
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States 01.04.1997
• Subjects: Biopsy; Decision Support Techniques; Decision Trees; Giant Cell Arteritis - complications; Giant Cell Arteritis - drug therapy; Giant Cell Arteritis - pathology; Humans; Outcome Assessment (Health Care); Prednisone - adverse effects; Prednisone - therapeutic use; Probability; Quality-Adjusted Life Years; Treatment Outcome
• ISSN: 0272-989X
• DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9701700203

This paper describes how to estimate probabilities and outcome values for decision trees. Probabilities are usually derived from published studies, but occasionally are derived from existing databases, primary data collection, or expert judgment. Outcome values represent quantitative estimates of the desirability of the outcome states, and are often expressed as utility values between 0 and 1. Utility values for different health states can be derived from the published literature, from direct measurement in appropriate subjects, or from expert opinion. Methods for assigning utilities to complex outcome states are described, and the concept of quality-adjusted life years is introduced.