Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

• Published in: Frontiers in ecology and evolution Vol. 10
• Main Authors: Ahmad, Riris Andono, Imron, Muhammad Ali, Ramadona, Aditya Lia, Lathifah, Nurul, Azzahra, Faradhina, Widyastuti, Kirana, Fuad, Anis
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Frontiers Media S.A 20.01.2023
• Subjects: COVID-19; human movement; Indonesia; metapopulation; pandemic; social interaction
• ISSN: 2296-701X; 2296-701X
• DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.958651

Introduction Coronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment, cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines. Method We developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island, Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early pandemic. Travelers’ behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city. Results Local sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic spreading on this island. Discussion Our SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.