Accurate reliability prediction
The requirement of a design to life cycle cost model for an accurate reliability prediction method that can be applied very early in a project's life is discussed. Current methods either lack accuracy or cannot be applied until extensive details of the equipment are available. Based empirically...
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| Published in | Reliability engineering Vol. 3; no. 6; pp. 475 - 485 |
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| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.01.1982
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| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Summary: | The requirement of a design to life cycle cost model for an accurate reliability prediction method that can be applied very early in a project's life is discussed. Current methods either lack accuracy or cannot be applied until extensive details of the equipment are available. Based empirically on the data, a model has been developed that uses a Weibull distribution of time between failures combined with time-variable failure rates. It assesses the equipment's function and technology and, in association with a modified parts count prediction, produces predictions that are both accurate and timely. The analysis has shown that the accuracy has improved from 30% of predictions within one standard deviation of the achieved reliability based on a straight parts count prediction, to 70% based on the Weibull time-between-failures model. |
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| ISSN: | 0143-8174 1878-2809 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/0143-8174(82)90037-3 |