Identifying areas vulnerable to homicide using multiple criteria analysis and spatial analysis

• Published in: Omega (Oxford) Vol. 100; p. 102211
• Main Authors: Mota, Caroline Maria de Miranda, Figueiredo, Ciro José Jardim de, Pereira, Débora Viana e Sousa
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.04.2021
• Subjects: Dominance-based rough set approach; Homicide; Multiple criteria analysis; Spatial analysis; Spatial analysis; Homicide; Dominance-based rough set approach; Multiple criteria analysis
• ISSN: 0305-0483; 1873-5274
• DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2020.102211

•The use of maps facilitates the elicitation processes.•Spatial analysis is used to identify significant spatial patterns.•The maps generated by the model show the most critical vulnerable areas to homicides.•The vulnerable areas of the neighbourhood are concentrated.•Our model can be useful for guiding public policies. The decision-making process in public security is not an easy task. Several aspects must be considered, since resources are limited, whereas coverage should be extensive. Usually, preventative actions are allocated to areas that are more prone to violence, where criminal occurrences have happened in the recent past. In Brazil, such decisions are made in an ad-hoc way, considering only the knowledge of a specialist. This paper, however, aims to identify homicide vulnerability areas, taking into account the knowledge and preferences of an expert decision-maker under several criteria and data from a demographic census. Our model aggregates multiple-criteria analysis, based on Dominance-based Rough Set Approach, and spatial analysis, which consist of hot-spot analysis and local Moran's I. The model was applied in a neighbourhood of Brazil. The approach was able to highlight the problematic areas in the neighbourhood, and suggested locations where public policy and, consequently, limited resources should be allocated.