What Drives Support for Armed Humanitarian Intervention? Experimental Evidence From Dutch Citizens on International Law and Probability of Success

• Published in: Research & politics Vol. 11; no. 3
• Main Authors: Mazepus, Honorata, Aloyo, Eamon, Kubalová, Natália
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London, England SAGE Publications 01.07.2024; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC; SAGE Publishing
• Subjects: Atrocities; Citizens; Human rights; Humanitarian intervention; International law; Mass murders; Probability; Public opinion; United Nations Security Council; just war theory; armed humanitarian intervention; probability of success; mass atrocities; human rights; Public opinion; international law
• ISSN: 2053-1680; 2053-1680
• DOI: 10.1177/20531680241272613

Under what conditions do individuals support armed humanitarian intervention (AHI) in situations where mass atrocities are ongoing? This article tests several hypotheses about support for AHIs to isolate and interact two potential drivers: international law and the probability of success. It leverages an original, pre-registered experiment from a (quota) representative sample of over 1500 Dutch citizens. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that support for AHI increases when an action is authorized by the UN Security Council (UNSC) and has a high (80%) chance of success. But the Dutch remain supportive of AHI in situations of mass atrocities even when AHI has a low chance of success (20%). Importantly, we find that the chance of success does not affect the support for AHIs as much as the international law does. This suggests that in similar situations legal and procedural reasons may influence public opinion more than a logic of consequences.