Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle

• Published in: Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics Vol. 247; p. 106068
• Main Authors: Homola, P., Marchenko, V., Napolitano, A., Damian, R., Guzik, R., Alvarez-Castillo, D., Stuglik, S., Ruimi, O., Skorenok, O., Zamora-Saa, J., Vaquero, J.M., Wibig, T., Knap, M., Dziadkowiec, K., Karpiel, M., Sushchov, O., Mietelski, J.W., Gorzkiewicz, K., Zabari, N., Cheminant, K. Almeida, Idźkowski, B., Bulik, T., Bhatta, G., Budnev, N., Kamiński, R., Medvedev, M.V., Kozak, K., Bar, O., Bibrzycki, Ł., Bielewicz, M., Frontczak, M., Kovács, P., Łozowski, B., Miszczyk, J., Niedźwiecki, M., Peral, L. del, Piekarczyk, M., Frias, M.D. Rodriguez, Rzecki, K., Smelcerz, K., Sośnicki, T., Stasielak, J., Tursunov, A.A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2023
• ISSN: 1364-6826; 1879-1824
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 σ at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes. Variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum. •The local changes of the cosmic ray flux correlate with the global seismic activity.•The cosmic signal correlates with the future seismic activity.•The effect lasts a few years and occurs with periodicity similar to the solar cycle.