A new kinetic model to discuss the control of panic spreading in emergency

• Published in: Physica A Vol. 417; pp. 345 - 357
• Main Authors: Chen, Guanghua, Shen, Huizhang, Chen, Guangming, Ye, Teng, Tang, Xiangbin, Kerr, Naphtali
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.01.2015
• Subjects: Chemical explosion rumor; Emergency management; Panic spreading model; Stability analysis; Emergency management; Stability analysis; Chemical explosion rumor; Panic spreading model
• ISSN: 0378-4371; 1873-2119
• DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.055

Individual panic behavior during an emergency is contagious. It often leads to collective panic behavior, which can be disruptive and even disastrous if handled incorrectly. In this paper, a novel kinetic model is developed to describe the dynamics of panic spreading in a real emergency. The global dynamics of the proposed model are analyzed by using the method of Lyapunov function and the Poincarè–Bendixson property, and the obtained theoretical results are numerically validated. The Runge–Kutta method is used for numerical simulations, and these simulations are used to investigate the impact of corresponding management strategies on the containment of individual panic behavior. Meanwhile, the implications of these simulation results are discussed with the “2011 Xiangshui chemical explosion rumor” event. Finally, some recommendations for emergency management agencies are put forward by us to reduce individual panic behavior. •An ILSAR panic spreading model is investigated.•The spreaders may experience an attenuation period before becoming stiflers.•We analyze the global dynamics of the proposed model.•We discuss the “2011 Xiangshui chemical explosion rumor” event.•Some advice for emergency responders are put forward by us to reduce panic behavior.