A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea

• Published in: Asia-Pacific journal of atmospheric sciences Vol. 53; no. 4; pp. 411 - 419
• Main Authors: Shin, Ho-Jeong, Jang, Chan Joo, Chung, Il-Ung
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Seoul Korean Meteorological Society 01.11.2017; Springer Nature B.V; 한국기상학회
• Subjects: Adaptation; Air temperature; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Climatology; Data; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Global warming; Mitigation; Surface temperature; Surface-air temperature relationships; Warm climates; Weather stations; 대기과학; South Korea; Unprecedented climate; magnitude of internal variability; global warming linear trend; surface air temperature
• ISSN: 1976-7633; 1976-7951
• DOI: 10.1007/s13143-017-0044-1

Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.