Has the provincial-level residential building sector reached the carbon peak? An integrated assessment model

• Published in: Environmental impact assessment review Vol. 105; p. 107374
• Main Authors: Huo, Tengfei, Du, Qianxi, Yuan, Ting, Cai, Weiguang, Zhang, Weishi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.03.2024
• Subjects: Carbon peak situation integrated assessment model; Group regression model; Provincial differences; Residential building carbon emissions; STIRPAT model; Provincial differences; Group regression model; Residential building carbon emissions; Carbon peak situation integrated assessment model; STIRPAT model
• ISSN: 0195-9255; 1873-6432
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107374

Assessing the historical peak situation at the provincial level is critical to better predict the future evolution of residential building carbon emissions. However, the provincial carbon peak status of this sector is still unclear. To this end, this study proposes a carbon peak situation integrated assessment model (CPSIAM), which is utilized to comprehensively evaluate the provincial peak situation of total carbon emissions, carbon emissions per capita and carbon emissions per floor space of urban and rural residential buildings and figure out carbon peaking progress in each province. Then, the driving mechanism of differentiated carbon peak status of provincial residential building carbon emissions are examined using the panel STIRPAT model and group regression model. Results show that as for the three residential building carbon emission indicators, Heilongjiang and Shanghai have both reached their full peaks as of 2020, however the former is in passive decline and the latter is in an active peak. Population, population structure, and floor space per capita are the main variables causing the differentiated peak status. This study not only offers a general methodological system for assessing the regional carbon peak situation, but also empowers policymakers to develop effective and differentiated emission-reduction measures based on their knowledge of peaked regions. [Display omitted] •A carbon peak situation integrated assessment model (CPSIAM) is proposed.•Evaluate the provincial carbon peak situation of residential building sector.•Figure out each province's carbon peaking progress.•The peak order is carbon emissions per floor space, per capita, and overall.•Energy intensity is the main variables causing differentiated peak status.