Resilient analysis on tunnel structural serviceability based on lifetime dynamic prediction model

• Published in: Tunnelling and underground space technology Vol. 129; p. 104690
• Main Authors: Huang, Dawei, Zhu, Hehua, Shen, Yi, Yan, Zhiguo, Ju, Jiann-Wen Woody
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2022
• Subjects: Effect analysis; Lifetime operation; Resilience; Short-term event; Tunnel; Effect analysis; Tunnel; Lifetime operation; Short-term event; Resilience
• ISSN: 0886-7798; 1878-4364
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2022.104690

[Display omitted] •Framework of lifetime dynamic prediction model to tunnel is developed.•Importance of short-term events to tunnel under life performance is illustrated.•Resilience is implied with ability of self-regeneration under the weakness time.•Transition cost of operation time represents repairable degree to certain defect. In order to ensure tunnels safety and serviceability of under whole life cycle, it is indispensable to predict tunnel performance and appropriate maintenance time under multi-defects. In this study, the performance of tunnel system is regarded as the composition of long-term aging deterioration and a series of short-term events to define its development with time. With the subsequent events updating the residual performance, an innovative method for dynamic analysis of tunnel performance is proposed. According to failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method and hierarchical model, an initial life performance model is established. Divided into the failure, evolution and recovery stages, the system evaluates the performance variation of specific defect under short-term events. In the case study, an additional excavation event is put into consideration to analyze the performance loss and the new pattern of lifetime performance model. The key issues of the tunnel are extracted into longitudinal settlement, differential settlement and leakage. With the theory of key defects, the thresholds conditions are classified into four stages and the damage-recovery process are evaluated by the concept of resilience. The process of dynamic prediction model to tunnel system is employed to update the variation of maintenance schedule and the serviceable time among defects, meanwhile the new performance curve of tunnel system can be modified through the evaluation of structural equation. Finally, if all thresholds are not exceeded by short-term events, the original life-cycle service curve and short-term event are superimposed as the update of life cycle. The result implies that despite the short-term event only costs minor damage to the system, the consequence may cast a critical loss on the residual of operation time.