A new-structure grey Verhulst model for China’s tight gas production forecasting

• Published in: Applied soft computing Vol. 96; p. 106600
• Main Authors: Zeng, Bo, Ma, Xin, Zhou, Meng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.11.2020
• Subjects: Grey Verhulst model; New structure; Prediction of China’s Tight gas production; Result analysis and suggestions; Result analysis and suggestions; Prediction of China’s Tight gas production; Grey Verhulst model; New structure
• ISSN: 1568-4946; 1872-9681
• DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106600

Tight gas, shale gas and coalbed gas are recognized as the three sources of unconventional natural gas in the world. Currently, China’s tight gas production is at an absolute advantage. Hence, a reasonable prediction of tight gas production is of great value to China’s government in formulating energy policies. In this study, the data characteristics of China’s tight gas production were analysed. Then a new-structure grey Verhulst model for predicting China’s tight gas production was employed, and the time response function and initial value optimization method of the new model were deduced. Next, the new model was used to simulate and predict China’s tight gas production. The comprehensive error was 2.07%, which was much smaller than that of the traditional grey Verhulst model (7.78%) and the GM(1,1) model (18.57%). Finally, China’s tight gas production was predicted and analysed. The results show that the growth of China’s tight gas production will slow down in the next three years due to the high cost of tight gas exploitation. Therefore, Chinese government should speed up tight gas exploitation through policy support; meanwhile, China needs to continue importing large quantities of natural gas to ensure sufficient domestic supply of natural gas. •A new grey model is proposed to forecast the tight gas production in China.•The study corrects the erroneous prediction of tight gas production by think tanks.•The new grey model has better structure and parameters than traditional models.•Findings can help government of China formulate reasonable energy policies.