501 Years of Spring Precipitation History for the Semi-Arid Northern Iran Derived from Tree-Ring δ18O Data

• Published in: Atmosphere Vol. 11; no. 9; p. 889
• Main Authors: Foroozan, Zeynab, Grießinger, Jussi, Pourtahmasi, Kambiz, Bräuning, Achim
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.09.2020
• Subjects: Archives & records; Arid regions; Arid zones; Atmospheric circulation; Cellulose; Circulation indexes; Climate change; climate extremes; climate reconstruction; Climatic analysis; Climatic conditions; Correlation; Correlation analysis; Drought; Environmental changes; Environmental impact; Flooding; Growing season; Humidity; Hydroclimate; Hydrologic data; Juniperus polycarpos; paleohydroclimatic proxy; Precipitation; Reconstruction; Regions; Semi arid areas; Semiarid lands; Semiarid zones; Spring; Spring precipitation; Spring water; stable isotope dendroclimatology; Tree rings; Trees; Trends; Vegetation; Water availability; Water shortages; Winter; δ18O chronology; Middle East; Caspian Sea; Alborz Mountains; Iran; Asia
• ISSN: 2073-4433; 2073-4433
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos11090889

In semi-arid regions of the world, knowledge about the long-term hydroclimate variability is essential to analyze and evaluate the impact of current climate change on ecosystems. We present the first tree-ring δ18O based hydroclimatic reconstruction for northern semi-arid Iran spanning the period 1515–2015. A highly significant correlation between tree-ring δ18O variations of juniper trees and spring (April–June) precipitation reveals a major influence of spring water availability during the early growing season. The driest period of the past 501 years occurred in the 16th century while the 18th century was the wettest, during which the overall highest frequency of wet year events occurred. A gradual decline in spring precipitation is evident from the beginning of the 19th century, pointing to even drier climate conditions. The analysis of dry/wet events indicates that the frequency of years with relatively dry spring increased over the last three centuries, while the number of wet events decreased. Our findings are in accordance with historical Persian disaster records (e.g., the severe droughts of 1870–1872, 1917–1919; severe flooding of 1867, the 1930s, and 1950). Correlation analyses between the reconstruction and different atmospheric circulation indices revealed no significant influence of large-scale drivers on spring precipitation in northern Iran.