Monte Carlo method for predicting the stability of the functioning of the informatization object in the conditions of massive computer attacks

• Published in: Journal of physics. Conference series Vol. 2099; no. 1; pp. 12070 - 12079
• Main Author: Voevodin, V A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: IOP Publishing 01.11.2021
• ISSN: 1742-6588; 1742-6596
• DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/2099/1/012070

Abstract The application of the Monte Carlo method for solving the problem of predicting the functioning stability of the object of informatization in the conditions of massive computer attacks (MCA) is considered. The field of research represents practical and theoretical interests, since the methods developed by the theory of reliability are focused on simple, stationary, failure flows, which cannot be applied to the MCA conditions. In the conditions of the MCA, the period of normal functioning is commensurate with the recovery time, therefore, the application of the Poisson flow model leads to a significant error. To ensure the reliability of modeling, it is necessary to use an alternating process model, where the recovery time is commensurate with the period of operation and has a finite value, while analytical models of the real functioning processes are cumbersome, difficult to interpret and have no practical application.